Study Finds Data Center Electricity Use Could Double by 2030
PALO ALTO, Calif. — Thanks in large part to artificial intelligence becoming an ever-more entrenched part of the digital economy, the demand for power from the data centers the technology relies on could double by 2030, a new report from the Electric Power Research Institute says.
According to the institute, also known as EPRI, AI-driven demand could cause data centers to consume as much as 9% of the power generated in the United States as soon as six years from today.
If that happens, it could lead to a host of complications, including regional supply challenges, the report states.
“The U.S. electricity sector is working hard to meet the growing demands of data centers, transportation electrification, crypto-mining and industrial onshoring, while balancing decarbonization efforts,” says David Porter, EPRI’s vice president of Electrification and Sustainable Energy Strategy, in a written statement.
“The data center boom requires closer collaboration between large data center owners and developers, utilities, government and other stakeholders to ensure that we can power the needs of AI while maintaining reliable, affordable power to all customers,” he adds.
The nonprofit’s researchers say that AI queries require approximately 10 times the electricity of traditional internet searches and the generation of original music, photos and videos requires much more.
With 5.3 billion internet users, rapid adoption of these new tools could increase power demands substantially.
At the same time, they say, computing facilities are becoming more concentrated, with single facilities now requesting power consumption that can range from the equivalent of 80,000 to 800,000 homes, exacerbating power delivery challenges.
Drawing on public information about existing data centers, estimates of industry growth, and private electricity demand forecasts by industry experts, EPRI outlined four scenarios of potential annual electricity consumption in U.S. data centers from 2023 to 2030, with annual growth rates ranging from 3.7% to 15%.
The lowest scenario assumed limited public uptake of AI tools, coupled with high gains in data center efficiency, while the highest scenario combined rapid expansion of AI applications with fewer efficiency gains.
These scenarios placed data center power ranges from 4.6%-9.1%.
The analysis also looked at regional impacts of increased AI power demand.
An estimated 80% of the national data center load in 2023 was concentrated in 15 states, led by Virginia and Texas. Demands for highly reliable power, requests for power from new, non-emitting generation sources and short lead times for connection — of two years or fewer — can create local and regional electricity supply challenges.
To overcome these challenges, the analysis suggested three essential strategies:
- Improve data center efficiency and flexibility.
- Coordinate closely between data center developers and utilities regarding power needs, timing, flexibility and delivery constraints.
- Develop better modeling tools to anticipate and accommodate data center growth without affecting grid reliability.
To address better modeling tools, EPRI recently launched a comprehensive, two-year program to examine and develop new strategies for meeting emerging operational and planning load forecasting challenges.
A key focus of the program will be on projections of large loads such as data centers.
The initiative is specifically exploring better approaches for forecasting load during extreme weather events, estimating customer deployment of distributed energy resources, changing customer behavior and the impacts of emerging technologies.
Dan can be reached at [email protected] and @DanMcCue
