Boebert ‘Leads’ but Undecided Voters Could Hold Key to Primary Outcome

WASHINGTON — Though Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., appears to hold a decided lead over her GOP rivals in Tuesday’s primary in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, the large number of “undecided” voters in a recent poll suggest the contest’s outcome is far from certain.

The poll, conducted May 31 by Kaplan Strategies, an Orlando, Florida-based political consulting firm, found that 40% of registered voters in the district plan to vote for the two-term congresswoman, while another 40% still described themselves as undecided.

The same poll, a survey of 343 registered likely voters, had none of Boebert’s challengers breaking out of the single digits. 

Peter Yu, a finance and mortgage consultant who has run unsuccessfully for both the U.S. House and Senate in the past, comes closest to Boebert, garnering the support of 5% of survey respondents.

He’s followed by former State Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg, entrepreneur and media executive Deborah Flora, rancher and Colorado House member Richard Holtorf, all of whom came in at 4%, and state Rep. Mike Lynch, who received the support of 3% of those surveyed.

Kaplan Strategies assigned the poll a margin of error at plus or minus 4.3%.

Boebert’s numbers are an improvement over her performance in a previous Kaplan Strategies poll, conducted in February, which showed she only had the support of 32% of voters in the district.

She also has the backing of former President Donald Trump who endorsed her over the winter and who reiterated his support last week.

“Congresswoman Lauren Boebert is a proven Conservative and effective leader who delivers for Colorado, and our America First agenda,” he wrote on his Truth Social media site. 

“Boebert is a trusted America First Fighter, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District!” he said.

She also has the support of House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and strong financial backing from the House Freedom Fund, a PAC related to the far-right Freedom Caucus.

But Boebert also has more negatives associated with her name than anyone else in Tuesday’s Republican field.

In September, 2023, the congresswoman was famously tossed out of the Buell Theatre in downtown Denver after patrons complained that she was vaping, singing and groping her date during a performance of “Beetlejuice.”

Boebert later apologized for her behavior, which was captured on a security camera, but the incident has been revived by John Padora, a Democrat running in the 4th District, who has built a campaign ad around it.

Drama continued to follow Boebert into this year.

In January, the congresswoman’s ex-husband, Jayson Boebert, was charged with assault and other counts in connection with two domestic altercations, including an argument with Boebert in a restaurant that spiraled out of control and a fight with the former couple’s 18-year-old son, Tyler.

A month later, Tyler himself was arrested and charged with felony theft in relation to a “recent string of vehicle trespass and property thefts.”

According to law enforcement officials, he was accused of breaking into vehicles to steal credit cards and other identification documents, such as driver’s licenses and vehicle registrations. 

On the political front, Boebert is also facing accusations that she is a carpetbagger who is only running for now-retired Rep. Ken Buck’s former seat, because she feared she couldn’t win reelection to her current seat, representing Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District.

In 2022 she defeated her Democratic opponent, Adam Frisch, by only 546 votes.

If she’d stayed in the 3rd CD, she undoubtedly would have faced a rematch with Frisch, who had already raised significantly more money than she, before she opted to switch districts.

Boebert has responded to the carpetbagging allegations by saying a failed candidacy by her in the 3rd Congressional District would have threatened Republican control of the House of Representatives., while her victory in the 4th District could help preserve it.

Boebert said she did not arrive at the decision easily.

“A lot of perspective convinced me that this is the best way I can continue to fight for Colorado, for the conservative movement and for my children’s future,” she said in a Facebook post. 

Boebert went on to say that the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts share a lot of similarities and that the rural communities they encompass “need a strong conservative voice.”

The 3rd District is known for its mountainous regions and most of the population resides in Pueblo, Grand Junction and resort locations such as Aspen and Durango. 

The 4th District holds most of its population in Douglas County, which is a conservative suburb of Denver. On the eastern side of the state, this district holds most of the rural Eastern Plains. 

According to the Cook Political Report, it is the most Republican district in Colorado and no Democrat has received more than 40% of the vote since 2010. 

John Strayer, a former political science professor at Colorado State University, said last week that he believes “Boebert has a big edge … and she is likely to come out on top by probably quite a margin and everyone else will most likely split the vote.”

If Boebert does win the Republican primary she will still have to face off against the victor of the Democratic primary to ultimately win the U.S. House seat. While John Padora is doing his best to be that candidate, the pundits expect it will be the U.S. Marine Corps. veteran Ike McCorkle.

Last month, McCorkle released a poll commissioned by his campaign that showed him defeating Boebert 41% to 27% in a head-to-head matchup.

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